02. 12. 2012

Futures Markets:

Arabica : futures steadied themselves for most of the week before a jump on Thursday surprising many traders.
Robusta : At last a bounce on Liffe! Robusta futures out performed the entire commodity complex with a 5% rise. This was due to a combination of short-covering, reduced supplies and specs closing positions.
Currency : The Euro hovered near 10-month lows as a credit downgrade on Portugal added to worries about debt levels in Greece and other parts of Europe, weighing on riskier assets such as shares and commodities. 
Futures and Currency close levels:






NY May-10 c/lb

134.70 (+0.50)





Lon May-10 $/t

1273 (+15)











Physical Markets:
Brazil : The tricky coffee harvest in the worlds top producer Brazil is a little more than a month away and looks set to prove every bit as difficult as farmers have been fearing. Trees will bear a traffic-light-like mixture of ripe red, yellow and unripe green cherries but few growers can afford to harvest in multiple sweeps of the fields to avoid quality problems. They say the labourers needed are scarce and costly. 
Colombia : After doubling coffee exports in the past two years, Colombia's largest food company Nacional de Chocolates sees coffee exports climbing at least 45% this year with new markets in the Middle East and higher shipments of processed specialty coffee. Chocolates expects exports of processed and instant coffee will reach "at least" $135 million this year, rising from $93 million last year as the company increases processed specialty coffee exports. We still do not know how much coffee will be produced and exported this year despite bullish production estimates.
Honduras : The crop cycle is coming to an end with few new offers seen.
Guatemala : Good demand seen as replacement to Colombians. Premium qualities are selling fast.
Tanzania : The final auction of this crop year is approaching, new crop being offered at very high prices indeed.
Kenya : Prices continue to sky-rocket, best AA grade traded over $700 per 50kgs ex auction! We are seeing better demand for the ABs and Mbunis.
Uganda : Where has all the Robusta gone? New crop delayed by rain and Sudan grabbing all deliveries in advance of overseas buyers. Washed Bugisu Arabica seen as attractive compared with neighbouring Kenyas.
India : Total coffee exports from India between October 2009 and March 19, 2010, were approx 106,000 tonnes, compared with 81,598 tonnes in the corresponding period last year. According to local sources, these figures seem to indicate that the post-monsoon production estimate of the Coffee Board of 290,000 tonnes in 2009-10 may be surpassed. However, the value per tonne of coffee exported declined 5.35% compared with October 2008-March 2009. Some coffee growers had earlier estimated 15-25% damage to the current Arabica crop as a result of unseasonal rain in November and December 2009, but other growers contested this claim, saying that overall losses were far less than 15 percent of the current crop. 
Consuming nations: According to Swiss food and beverage company Nestle SA, a strong Swiss franc could hurt its high-end coffee product Nespresso. Production in Switzerland will become more costly if the euro stays below CHF1.45 for a long period, according to Nestle Switzerland's head Roland Decorvet This would affect Nespresso in particular, which is only produced in Switzerland. 
Rainforest Alliance has announced figures for 2009. Production of RA-certified coffee was 168,114 metric tones, an increase of 36% from 2008. As of December 2009, there were 27,610 Rainforest Alliance Certified coffee farms around the world (land area was not provided). This represents 22 countries. Nine were added this year including India, Kenya, Uganda, the United States, Vietnam and Zambia. Note that production volumes do not mean all the coffee grown under certified conditions was sold as such. Certified coffee may be blended with non-certified coffee, or the buyer may be interested in other attributes besides the certification and purchases it without intending to market it as certified, to give just a couple of examples. However, RA indicated that their sales of certified beans grew by 41% in 2009, and that since 2003, the supply of RA-certified coffee has grown by an average of 64% annually with sales increasing by an average of 77% a year over the same period.