03. 12. 2012

Futures Markets:

Arabica : coffee futures fell into a slow process of continuous decline last week on chart-motivated liquidations. In addition the negative performance persisted as the market broke previous day's lows encouraging speculative selling. Some origin price fixing action also added pressure to prices. External factors also influenced on the prices. The US dollar remained strong causing weakness across commodity markets in general. During the week, Arabica prices finished 4.7 cents lower. Arabica prices fell as speculators took profit as prices were unable to exceed the 140.00 key resistance level earlier in the week.

Robusta : futures in London also fell as the market came under pressure from the firm US dollar. The active May position contract fell early in the week before ending nearly unchanged, up $2 per tone. Activity remained quiet. Physical business picked up as prices recovered, and a short covering in the Euro provided some support to European commodities.

Currency : The dollar was boosted by renewed concern about Greece's debt troubles which weakened the Euro. The Pound firmed up as the general election was called.






NY May-10 c/lb






Lon May-10 $/t












Physical Markets:
Brazil : the upcoming 2010 crop is predicted to be 44.2 million bags according to IBGE - the agricultural division of Brazils Nation Survey Organisation. New estimate is a decrease of 4.7% on IBGE's previous report and mainly due to dry weather in Espiranto Santo State. In January CONAB (the National Commodity supply corporation) released an estimate of between 45.9 and 48.7 million bags in 2010. Both IBGE and CONAB normally produce conservative estimates well below industry players who predict a crop of over 50 million bags with some estimates exceeding 55 million bags. The real rose discouraging local sales in the coffee market.

Colombia : Colombian coffee-growing regions registered limited rainfall in March as the El Nino weather phenomenon took a toll on coffee production and quality. Precipitation fell during the month to about half its historic averages in some coffee producing areas, according to the National Coffee Research Centre, (Cenicafe).

Honduras : Coffee exports from Honduras rose by 48% in March to 688,780 bags, according to the Honduran Coffee Institute, (Ihcafe). Total Honduran shipments from the beginning of the 2009-10 crop cycle to the end of March were up 35%.

Tanzania : Tanzanian coffee prices fell at the latest auction as growers offered mostly end-of-season type beans for sale. The state-run Tanzania Coffee Board (TCB) said 7,665 bags were offered, with 6,100 bags sold. Coffee that remained unsold will be offered at the last auction of the season in the two weeks time. TCB forecasts the 2009/10 (June/April) crop will fall to 50,000 tonnes in the continent's fourth largest coffee grower -- after Ethiopia, Uganda and Ivory Coast -- from 68,331 tonnes in the last season.

Uganda : Uganda's coffee exports fell 15% in March to 217,809 bags compared with the similar period last year due to dwindling yields in some areas, according to the Uganda Coffee Development Authority (UCDA) this is against exports of 256,679 bags in the same month last year. The harvest in central and eastern Uganda is winding down and the South and South Western regions are now going into their harvest season and yields from those areas will dominate in the next half of the coffee season (Oct-Sep). UCDA says eastern and central Uganda account for around 55% of the country's total coffee output. Export volumes of the beans have been falling since late 2009, partly due to the impact of drought that hit the country last year. That prompted UCDA to lower its output forecast for the 2009/10 season to 3.1 million bags from 3.4 million.

Indonesia : Indonesia's Robusta coffee exports from the main coffee-growing area in southern Sumatra dropped 35% in March from a year ago. The fall in exports reflected low coffee stocks due to a delay in the main harvest.

According to the Financial Times, Kraft Foods has endorsed a 20-year licence to a group of retail entrepreneurs to set up a national chain of Cadbury-branded cafes that will compete with high street coffee shops. The group could open as many as 60 cafés - to be called Cadbury Cocoa House - in locations around the UK in the next three to five years, and has already begun to negotiate with landlords for the first sites in London, which could be running before the end of 2010, reports the daily. Cadbury confirmed on Thursday that it was in discussions about the concept and that Kraft had signed on to the licensing deal, without providing any financial backing for it.

TEA : Kenya tea trade association says prices holding up (Reuters) - Kenya tea prices were stable at auction this year despite improved output due to good rains that were expected to lead to higher production this year, the head of East African Tea Trade Association said on Thursday. Kenya is the leading exporter of black tea in the world. Its weekly tea auction at the port city of Mombasa handles tea from 11 African countries with between 70-80 percent of the tea sold being from Kenya alone.